Canadian Real Estate Housing Market Snapshot for Oct 2020 Across Canada ...

 

Bosley Real Estate Market Insight - November 20th, 2020

 

UPDATE FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 20TH, 2020 Toronto Condo Prices Down 9% from Peak - Recent news articles about Toronto’s condo market range from pessimistic to optimistic leaving many wondering what exactly is happening. In early October condo listings surged 215% in downtown Toronto, while a couple of weeks later an article titled “Toronto condo prices rise over 8% even as new listings surge”.  Jason Mercer, chief market analyst with the TRREB is saying “there is still enough competition between buyers to support average selling prices substantially above last year’s levels.” While this is technically true, it leaves one with the impression that condo prices are trending up when in fact average condo prices have been trending down over the past seven months. To better understand how prices can be up over last year but still be trending down we’ll need to look at some data on the downtown Toronto condo market (the area south of Bloor between the DVP and Dufferin) since it’s the hardest hit area in the GTA.

 

 

 

Condo prices downtown were relatively steady during the first three quarters of 2019. The average price for a downtown condo in the third quarter of 2019 was $714K. But in the last quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 the market changed significantly. A sudden surge in demand coupled with very tight inventory resulted in a very competitive market which pushed average prices up to $820K in the first quarter of 2020, a $100K (15%) increase in just six months. Since then average condo prices downtown fell by 9% to just under $750K.  We typically don’t analyze changes in home prices or sales on a month over month or quarter over quarter basis. Real estate is a seasonal business, so we typically compare prices and sales against the same period last year. But the risk with only comparing home prices year over year is that it can sometimes give us a false impression of the market today. That’s why the statement below from Urbanation’s Shaun Hildebrand really captures what is happening in the condo market today:  “It’s very likely that by the first quarter of 2021 we could be in a situation where we see double digit year over year declines in average condo prices downtown, and that’s under a scenario where prices remain flat from where they are right now.” Shaun’s prediction was not based on a forecast of the future, but a better understanding of where the market is today. Condo prices are already down 9% from their peak, and even if they remain flat for the next five months, we will see close to a double-digit year over year decline in downtown condo prices in the first quarter. The bigger question will be whether or not condo prices stay flat over the next five months or whether we will see more downward pressure on prices. (Move Smartly Report) Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full-service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Muskoka, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Hope and Cambridge, Ontario since 1928. We have three centrally located offices in Toronto and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

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TRREB Market Watch by the Numbers October 2020

 

Market Snapshot October 2020

 

Bosley Market Insight Week Ending October 23rd 2020

With the high stakes of the upcoming US presidential election on November 3rd, people are getting nervous about what they will be waking up to. If you’ve been holding off purchasing property or investing until after the election because of the uncertainty, here is some information you might want to consider.

When Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016, it caused shockwaves around the world. No one expected him to win, but win he did, and what was going to happen next was anyone’s guess. Democrats freaked out, and the old “moving to Canada” refrain appeared on Twitter, right on schedule. But those millions of Democrats moving to Canada never materialized. The stock market took a hit the day after the election but jumped back up the following day. In the short-term, absolutely nothing changed.

In fact, 2016 ended up being a record year in real estate in Canada. This winning streak continued for the next few years, only to be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. And since then, the housing market in Canada has rebounded to a remarkable degree!

With all that in mind, conditions are very different than they were four years ago. Political division in the United States has grown exponentially. COVID-19 badly hit their economy. And the current election seems to be one of the most chaotic and negative they’ve ever had.

In Canada, however, things have not changed quite as much (COVID-19 notwithstanding). The federal government has moved to a minority rather than a majority situation, but the same party is in power. While there have been some issues that divide us, it’s nothing like what is happening to our immediate south. COVID-19 is much more under control than it is in the US, and the housing market is still red hot across the country. So, those are all stabilizing factors moving forward into the end of 2020.

Regardless of who wins the US election, the impact on Canadian real estate will likely be minimal. We have our own issues right now, including recovering from COVID-19. As more challenges mount throughout 2020 and beyond, savvy real estate investors will adapt, seeing opportunities and grabbing them, regardless of who is in the White House.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Market Watch by the Numbers for September 2020